{
 "as_at": "2026-11-13",
 "bloc_outcomes": {
  "title": "Enrolment law cut the left bloc's majority chance from about 17% to 7%",
  "unit": "% of 60,000 paired simulations",
  "note": "Left bloc includes Opportunity, which has not committed to either side.",
  "rows": [
   {
    "outcome": "Left majority",
    "current_rules": 7.0,
    "old_rules": 17.3
   },
   {
    "outcome": "Hung Parliament",
    "current_rules": 33.2,
    "old_rules": 35.7
   },
   {
    "outcome": "Right majority",
    "current_rules": 59.8,
    "old_rules": 47.0
   }
  ]
 },
 "sensitivity_left_friendly": {
  "rows": [
   {
    "outcome": "Left majority",
    "current_rules": 23.1,
    "old_rules": 36.7
   },
   {
    "outcome": "Hung Parliament",
    "current_rules": 34.9,
    "old_rules": 30.4
   },
   {
    "outcome": "Right majority",
    "current_rules": 42.0,
    "old_rules": 32.9
   }
  ]
 },
 "model_comparison": {
  "title": "Models that discount the specials' left lean more give the right better odds",
  "unit": "% of runs",
  "note": "Middle category is not defined identically across models.",
  "rows": [
   {
    "model": "This report",
    "runs": 60000,
    "adjustment": "Domestic specials at 50-90% of 2023 lean",
    "right_majority": 59.8,
    "no_majority_or_tie": 33.2,
    "left_majority_with_opportunity": 7.0,
    "url": null
   },
   {
    "model": "Rodney Hide",
    "runs": 40000,
    "adjustment": "Each seat at 50-100% of 2023 lean",
    "right_majority": 70.0,
    "no_majority_or_tie": 26.0,
    "left_majority_with_opportunity": 3.7,
    "url": "https://www.brashandmitchell.com/post/rodney-hide-the-specials"
   },
   {
    "model": "mikethemerry",
    "runs": 20000,
    "adjustment": "Domestic specials at 85% of 2014-2023 lean",
    "right_majority": 50.3,
    "no_majority_or_tie": 17.5,
    "left_majority_with_opportunity": 32.2,
    "url": "https://github.com/mikethemerry/nz-2026-specials-model"
   },
   {
    "model": "electionhq.nz",
    "runs": 50000,
    "adjustment": "No adjustment stated (2017-2023 blend)",
    "right_majority": 34.0,
    "no_majority_or_tie": 22.0,
    "left_majority_with_opportunity": 44.0,
    "url": "https://www.electionhq.nz/specials"
   }
  ]
 },
 "close_electorates": [
  {
   "electorate": "Hutt South",
   "leader": "Andersen (Lab)",
   "second": "Bishop (Nat)",
   "margin": 889,
   "event": "Andersen holds",
   "current_rules": 99.99,
   "old_rules": 99.99
  },
  {
   "electorate": "Wairarapa",
   "leader": "Butterick (Nat)",
   "second": "McAnulty (Lab)",
   "margin": 139,
   "event": "McAnulty overtakes",
   "current_rules": 51,
   "old_rules": 58
  },
  {
   "electorate": "Wellington Bays",
   "leader": "Renney (Lab)",
   "second": "Genter (Grn)",
   "margin": 140,
   "event": "Genter overtakes",
   "current_rules": 66,
   "old_rules": 66
  },
  {
   "electorate": "Mt Roskill",
   "leader": "Wood (Lab)",
   "second": "Cheung (Nat)",
   "margin": 262,
   "event": "Wood holds",
   "current_rules": 94,
   "old_rules": 94
  },
  {
   "electorate": "Hamilton East",
   "leader": "Hamilton (Nat)",
   "second": "Dansey (Lab)",
   "margin": 456,
   "event": "Dansey overtakes",
   "current_rules": 7,
   "old_rules": 17
  },
  {
   "electorate": "Te Tai Tokerau",
   "leader": "Edwards (TPM)",
   "second": "Lyndon (Grn)",
   "margin": 436,
   "event": "Lyndon overtakes",
   "current_rules": 5,
   "old_rules": 5
  }
 ],
 "seat_outcomes_current_rules": [
  {
   "right": 65,
   "left": 65,
   "house": 130,
   "share": 32.4
  },
  {
   "right": 66,
   "left": 65,
   "house": 131,
   "share": 24.2
  },
  {
   "right": 67,
   "left": 64,
   "house": 131,
   "share": 16.8
  },
  {
   "right": 66,
   "left": 64,
   "house": 130,
   "share": 9.7
  },
  {
   "right": 65,
   "left": 66,
   "house": 131,
   "share": 3.0
  },
  {
   "right": 64,
   "left": 65,
   "house": 129,
   "share": 3.0
  }
 ],
 "enrolment_estimates": {
  "votes_lost": {
   "central": 60000,
   "low": 40000,
   "high": 80000
  },
  "turned_away_at_booth": {
   "central_low": 15000,
   "central_high": 20000,
   "low": 8000,
   "high": 35000
  },
  "net_left_votes_lost": {
   "excl_opportunity": 8900,
   "incl_opportunity": 10000
  }
 }
}